Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 4.091572 4.531215 5.059265 5.761692 6.710587 8.020834 10.143849
2025-01-05 3.438278 3.927737 4.561340 5.494223 6.956098 9.497140 15.868868
2025-01-12 3.043115 3.530819 4.187153 5.209996 6.968967 10.606094 25.807629
2025-01-19 2.806504 3.295457 3.973845 5.081770 7.152135 12.290588 80.681152
2025-01-26 2.707456 3.227649 3.978422 5.285416 8.051479 17.772912 NaN
2025-02-02 2.656665 3.217119 4.060602 5.639022 9.560348 38.382383 NaN
2025-02-09 2.554975 3.119800 3.989364 5.685122 10.356513 127.151925 NaN
2025-02-16 2.473652 3.044057 3.941300 5.763591 11.380621 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.350399 2.895105 3.754177 5.507808 10.994189 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.284576 2.829420 3.701961 5.537374 11.836886 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.218728 2.758955 3.634019 5.517402 12.495589 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.139103 2.662389 3.512233 5.351103 12.292317 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.109979 2.646322 3.536700 5.553503 14.622719 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.025331 2.537851 3.386452 5.297951 13.698795 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.945011 2.433311 3.238100 5.033393 12.623193 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.888403 2.364439 3.150876 4.914008 12.516612 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.873928 2.361881 3.183594 5.103282 15.006405 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.873726 2.381998 3.259822 5.430526 20.753873 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.843295 2.350816 3.235718 5.473056 23.915912 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.817558 2.326134 3.222235 5.545376 29.176867 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.764958 2.254728 3.113017 5.309305 25.223328 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.739324 2.227600 3.089782 5.336640 29.361860 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.711046 2.194947 3.053602 5.318176 32.771164 NaN NaN